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TikTok 目前的博弈應對，究竟有多對？

發佈於 admin

特朗普與字節跳動的TikTok(以下簡稱TT)的交鋒，再次出現一點轉折。原本特朗普發佈行政令宣稱45天后（9月20日）將禁止任何個人及實體與TT及字節跳動進行任何交易。TT開始時全面退讓，並迅速表示願意將公司海外業務賣給微軟。當全世界大部份人，尤其國內網民，也認為張一鳴的這種割城求和的態度無助拯救TT，更有可能連那傳聞的500億美元也收不到。果然，特朗普隨後表明會有特別費用需要收取，而且忽然之間有很多所謂的「潛在訴訟」出現。而國內亦開始有聲討字節跳動及卸載抖音的情況出現。

這樣被迫到牆角之下，8月7日，字節跳動終於硬氣起來，發佈聲明，表示如美國政府不能予其公正對待，將會訴諸美國法院。因為美國所謂的國家安全藉口，連CIA也說找不到實質證據。

這就如筆者上星期所說，中美相鬥如此激烈，美國已經不存在自由經濟及企業無國界的面具，因此中企更要站好隊及保護好中國內銷市場這個基本盤。

當然，字節跳動已經有大量美國資本下注，董事會內有相當影響力，其總部亦計畫遷去歐洲。因此能否視這個「國際企業」為中國企業，又是另一個課題。

無論如何，敢與美國擺出戰鬥姿態，也先挽回會點分數。哪怕知道最後會輸，敢於亮劍，敢於博奕到底，才有可能出現轉機。天助自助者也。要明白，起訴只是博奕手段，不是目的，也不可能達到目的。但擺出這種態度，藉著起訴拖延時間，才有可能以拖待變。特朗普要的是政治資本及本少利大的功績/業績。TT敢於以美國法律及仍需披著表皮的自由經濟主義為杠杆，以彼之矛，攻彼之盾，輿論上先爭取回主動，那特朗普的如意算盤在11月中的大選前便不具備可持續性了。能拖上兩三個月，加上民主黨肯定不希望特朗普能領功，有這個時間差，就足夠打破共和黨救選舉的如意算盤了。

然而，TT若能一開始就告，或敢言會退出美國市場，這個民族英雄的分是妥妥拿下了。但其表現是服軟、求和、賣盤，資料中心遷往英國，撇清與中國關係等等舉動，雖然不排除有董事局內的權力的遊戲，但已讓其由受害者變成被聲付者。現在才去提告，只是安撫國內，以保內地市場而已。但讓美國如此食髓知味，甚至進一步計畫向中國在美國上市企業開刀，這個與TT一開始的搶薪救火態度不無關係。國內市場受影響是一定的。

要知道，沒了美國市場，字節跳動估值可能會由1000億美元，跌去一半，跌到500億美元。但，失去了中國市場，失去這個占其收入近九成的主場，估值可能便只剩十分一了。而且沒有本國政府明裡暗裡的保駕護航，你一個國際企業開拓其他海外市場，可以得到公平的待遇？ 

張一鳴多年前曾在微博上表示自己只是一個商人，與政治無關。企業無國界的理想活靈活現，可惜現在特朗普是要搞死中國，榨幹中國企業，不會接受投降，業務你留下，錢你別拿走。而且張一鳴中國人的身份是原罪，即使你入籍，有些東西是永遠切割不掉的。而且讓你一個美籍華人掌控住美國的媒體咽喉？美國本土精英是不會認同的。

2020年起，科技不再無國界，企業又豈會無國界？

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