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TikTok 目前的博弈應對,究竟有多對?

特朗普與字節跳動的TikTok(以下簡稱TT)的交鋒,再次出現一點轉折。原本特朗普發佈行政令宣稱45天后(9月20日)將禁止任何個人及實體與TT及字節跳動進行任何交易。TT開始時全面退讓,並迅速表示願意將公司海外業務賣給微軟。當全世界大部份人,尤其國內網民,也認為張一鳴的這種割城求和的態度無助拯救TT,更有可能連那傳聞的500億美元也收不到。果然,特朗普隨後表明會有特別費用需要收取,而且忽然之間有很多所謂的「潛在訴訟」出現。而國內亦開始有聲討字節跳動及卸載抖音的情況出現。

這樣被迫到牆角之下,8月7日,字節跳動終於硬氣起來,發佈聲明,表示如美國政府不能予其公正對待,將會訴諸美國法院。因為美國所謂的國家安全藉口,連CIA也說找不到實質證據。

這就如筆者上星期所說,中美相鬥如此激烈,美國已經不存在自由經濟及企業無國界的面具,因此中企更要站好隊及保護好中國內銷市場這個基本盤。

當然,字節跳動已經有大量美國資本下注,董事會內有相當影響力,其總部亦計畫遷去歐洲。因此能否視這個「國際企業」為中國企業,又是另一個課題。

無論如何,敢與美國擺出戰鬥姿態,也先挽回會點分數。哪怕知道最後會輸,敢於亮劍,敢於博奕到底,才有可能出現轉機。天助自助者也。要明白,起訴只是博奕手段,不是目的,也不可能達到目的。但擺出這種態度,藉著起訴拖延時間,才有可能以拖待變。特朗普要的是政治資本及本少利大的功績/業績。TT敢於以美國法律及仍需披著表皮的自由經濟主義為杠杆,以彼之矛,攻彼之盾,輿論上先爭取回主動,那特朗普的如意算盤在11月中的大選前便不具備可持續性了。能拖上兩三個月,加上民主黨肯定不希望特朗普能領功,有這個時間差,就足夠打破共和黨救選舉的如意算盤了。

然而,TT若能一開始就告,或敢言會退出美國市場,這個民族英雄的分是妥妥拿下了。但其表現是服軟、求和、賣盤,資料中心遷往英國,撇清與中國關係等等舉動,雖然不排除有董事局內的權力的遊戲,但已讓其由受害者變成被聲付者。現在才去提告,只是安撫國內,以保內地市場而已。但讓美國如此食髓知味,甚至進一步計畫向中國在美國上市企業開刀,這個與TT一開始的搶薪救火態度不無關係。國內市場受影響是一定的。

要知道,沒了美國市場,字節跳動估值可能會由1000億美元,跌去一半,跌到500億美元。但,失去了中國市場,失去這個占其收入近九成的主場,估值可能便只剩十分一了。而且沒有本國政府明裡暗裡的保駕護航,你一個國際企業開拓其他海外市場,可以得到公平的待遇? 

張一鳴多年前曾在微博上表示自己只是一個商人,與政治無關。企業無國界的理想活靈活現,可惜現在特朗普是要搞死中國,榨幹中國企業,不會接受投降,業務你留下,錢你別拿走。而且張一鳴中國人的身份是原罪,即使你入籍,有些東西是永遠切割不掉的。而且讓你一個美籍華人掌控住美國的媒體咽喉?美國本土精英是不會認同的。

2020年起,科技不再無國界,企業又豈會無國界?

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