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DCEP 与 Facebook 背后反映的大国金融博弈

国家央行4月底正式宣布将推出数字货币DCEP(Digital Currency/Electronic Payment),这个时间点是国家要进一步放宽外国资本进入中国金融领域之时,因此可以想象,DCEP存在着某种把关及调控金融风险的功能。

DCEP可以理解为数字化的人民币,与现时公众熟悉的加密货币(例如比特币)有一定分别。比特币应用了区块链技术,使用分布式账本储存(事务数据)的技术方案达到加密目的。目前DCEP应用了特定的区块链技术,但与第一代的比特币所用的技术比较,肯定有所提升,而且同时存在着中心化处理及分布式处理两层方案。加上DCEP由官方主导,有1:1的人民币储备去做支持。其可靠度真不是大部份虚拟货币所能比肩。

DCEP有什么好处?

首先,央行数字货币DCEP所提供的电子钱包,能够统合我们众多的银行卡及账号,两者并不必是有你无我的关系。我们当然仍然可以保留多个银行卡及银行账号,但银行账号体系将朝一体化迈进。支付宝、微信支付、银联本来还在三方演义,DCEP的到来,国内支付领域的版图,也必定会由其领风骚了。

其次,AML(反洗黑钱)的执行力度及效率将一下子提升多个级别。过去洗钱、非法交易及偏灰色的商业活动将无处藏匿。手机支付年代,支付宝及微信支付已经基本使现金消失,但仍存在某些现金交易。现金的匿名性为毒品交易、灰色经济活动、赌博、贿款和洗钱提供足够活动空间。

如果说手机支付直接消灭了困扰了国内数十年的假钞问题。数字货币DCEP则会一下子大幅压缩及限制了大量非法行为及灰色经济活动。当每个人的资金账户都能在央行的统筹下电子化管理,连现金也能电子化了,那么每一笔交易都能清清楚楚记录。这对从事非法行为的个人及企业会是一个头痛的问题。但对正规经营及消费的个人及企业,问题却并不如外间所说那么大。因为即使讲到公民的隐私保护,在早一轮Visa card及手机支付大行其道的年代,用户的每一单交易也是有根有据,非常透明,各国政府(尤其发明Visa Card的那个国家政府),若要查依然没有阻拦。

另外,在人民币迈向国际化的背景下,数字货币DCEP可以让国家多一套崭新工具往外走。简单来说,国内的DCEP与海外流通的DCEP,在高效的数字化管理下,可以是两套储水池的产品。国内企业的人民币存款要正规或非正规的汇往海外,变成海外版的数字货币DCEP后,再怎样散水或回流,其流动脉胳将会清清楚楚。要再借户口洗钱及转移资金,在极度容易追踪之下,其成本及难度将会大幅提高。国内大额资金难以乱走,国外的资金亦难以用直接投资之名入中国乱炒楼炒股,这一去一来之间,国家的金融稳定度及安全度便能相应提高了。

即使美国有新一轮的无限QE去兴风作浪,在DCEP的加紧搭建下,中国的韭菜将不会那么好割了。

另一方面,Facebook于2019年6月开始一直意图以其全球数十亿的用户的潜力,推动Libra这套数字货币,提供跨国的数字交易和支付服务。初时计划让Libra用一揽子货币(美元、欧元、日元、英镑和新加坡元)、政府债务和企业信用额度作为储备支持。但由于金融及银行业的反对,加上各国央行和监管机构担心Libra会破坏各国货币政策的稳定及更难监管洗钱,因此美国国会一直未予通过。而事隔一年,Libra协会表示,将对Libra项目作出调整,计划支持由单一货币作储备支持的不同国家的稳定币。概念与数字货币DCEP相似,但现在Facebook及Libra只能作为技术提供方,其影响力将再难与DCEP同日而语了。

Libra与DCEP的故事,也不过是大国金融博弈下的一个小插曲。

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