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1997年前的移民潮,會在香港重演嗎?

2020年的確是眾多歷史轉折的1年。5月21日,全國人大發言人公佈,本次人大會議議程包括授權人大常委會就國家安全在香港實施進行立法,範圍包括分裂國家、顛覆中央人民政府、外國干預及恐怖主義行為等。而該《全國人民代表大會關於建立健全香港特別行政區維護國家安全的法律制度和執行機制的決定(草案)》,會納入《基本法》附件三並在港實施,毋須經過香港立法會立法過程,香港國家安全問題部分得以一步到位實現。

Hong Kong Sunrise, View from The peak, Hong Kong Not Released (NR)

5月22日,人大的審議中列明,「中央人民政府維護國家安全的有關機關根據需要在香港特別行政區設立機構,依法履行維護國家安全相關職責」。另外,草案還列明「行政長官當就香港特別行政區履行維護國家安全職責、開展國家安全推廣教育、依法禁止危害國家安全的行為等情況,定期向中央人民政府提交報告。」

消息傳出後,反應兩極。經濟方面,香港股市單日下瀉近1,400點。但港匯只稍為偏弱。其中地產股跌幅最大,多隻龍頭地產股跌幅近10%。黎智英的壹傳媒於5月21日上午暴跌25%,全日跌28%。資本市場觸覺敏感,部分春江鴨更心知香港中短期的板塊將會出現什麼變化。而週一(5月25日)港股已喘定,恐慌未如部分人所形容的慘烈。香港後續的經濟及股市表現,不在香港的政治勢力或不同顏色的鬥爭,而在於中美的大國博弈。

美國政府上下對於是次<港版國安法>反應強烈,揚言會做出種種反制措施。但美國對港最大的制肘是取消香港的獨立關稅地位。2019年,美國會通過「香港人權與民主法案」,要求美國政府每年認證香港的自治狀態而決定是否維持香港根據1992年《美國-香港政策法》所享有的獨立關稅區等特殊待遇。若取消該待遇,的確會對香港經濟造成打擊,削弱香港的國際金融中心地位。這亦是香港反對派有恃無恐,認為國家會投鼠忌器不敢作反制的戰略性錯判。

美國其實也有為難的地方。香港是少有每年能為美國貢獻數百億貿易順差之地區,有大量美國公司及公民(超過8.5萬)在香港運作。取消獨立關稅待遇,能打擊香港,同時也打擊美國企業。當然,作為連接中國與西方之間的通道,香港承接了大量從中國來的轉口貿易,打擊香港對中國經濟也有一定傷害。但改革開放40多年,香港的視窗功能巳很大程度分散到整個中國的沿海地區,而且香港的GDP今時今日能占中國的比重已不大,因此對內地經濟的損害亦早已不如90年代。

由於美國手上的牌越打越少,這番又出奇不意,美國的對港策略短期內難免會舉棋不定,是政治上借機敲打中國,還是保留經濟實利,留待準備更充足時才打出這張牌,會形成複雜的博弈考慮。

除非美國今年取消獨立關稅待遇外,更以撲殺華為的規格制裁香港,否則香港經歷一番經濟震動後,社會環境沉澱下來,將有極大機會在國家的政策傾斜及協助對外政經板塊的重塑下,加速擺脫疫情及取消關稅協議帶來的負面影響,進一步發揮香港地區金融樞紐的角色。就像2003年的SARS及2008年的金融海嘯之後。

香港有很多不同國家的利益存在,即使是西方,撇除美國,歐洲多國也有其不同利益點在香港。而近幾年美國四處樹敵施加長臂管轄及制裁,也已經把自己的號召力及影響力切割得越來越輕。而面對新冠疫情的打擊及總統選舉後的經濟困局,美國對香港的獨立關稅地位是否會持續施壓,暫時仍是未知之數,因此不用太悲觀。

回歸之後,香港社會紛爭不斷。背後一個根本原因,是治港各方掉落了英國人臨走前所設的制度陷阱,並一直在該套規則中處處被動行事,因此只能見招拆招,卻不能去除瘀傷,形成各方的合力。

英國的政治智慧極高。窺其成功之處,要看其坐莊時曾經做過什麼,而不是聽其宣傳說了什麼。當然也要過濾其撤出所在殖民地前10年所做,因為當中有其「不可名之」的政治博弈佈局,非正常坐莊之所為。60年代至80年代,是香港經濟火速起飛的30年,看英國政府這30年賦予港督怎樣的許可權,這些港督又以怎樣的機制(行政、立法、治安等)治理香港,則能從中學習到其成功治港之精髓,亦是香港這次轉折之後應循之路。

觀乎澳門,2009年國安法實施之後的進步有目共睹。觀之香港,今亦不需太多悲觀揣測。

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