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美國能炸斷中國的一帶、一路嗎?

一帶一路戰略,乃復興中華的百年計劃。但在中美博弈越趨兇殘的背景下,未來幾年卻可能要稍緩步伐,抓近放遠。因爲一帶一路中的海洋貿易之路已受到潛在破壞性阻礙,美國會不會繼續開放通行更殊難預料。中國2020年第二季提出的雙軌制再次強調內需,以減少外貿之貿易風險,個人認為是國家智囊博弈思維之另一高瞻遠矚表現也。東南亞與中國陸地有接壤,軍力所能及也。加上過去幾十年已有不少華僑發揮作用,兩者經濟紐帶已融合得頗具規模。在東南亞區這些分站,滋擾及風波肯定會持續出現,但問題不大。

中亞部份,中國則宜聯合俄羅斯的企業乃至其軍事政治勢力,以保障國家及中國企業在這些國家的投資。國家更宜統一規劃,讓政府及業界高層交往先行,抱團出海,做好民間宣傳交流和後續實實在在的服務及基礎建設,合作共贏,適度讓利,將彼此的經濟捆綁得更深。這些一帶一路的中亞區分站才能更穩固紮根。

至於中東區域,近兩年美國蓄意破壞,在伊拉克、敘利亞、伊朗等地輪番招風引火,武力打擊,煽動支持區內的顏色革命,導致多國社會大亂,一帶一路這部份的投資風險大增。

至於歐洲部份,大規模的戰亂仍未蔓延。但歐盟各國不斷出臺無理法案,將國家安全無限上綱上線,對中國企業並不友好。而且大多歐洲國家,在第二次世界大戰後一直對美國馬首是瞻,傾向站隊美國。中美貿易戰預計還要持續多年,這些歐洲國家能做到中立、觀望,不完全倒向美國,已實屬不易。

而非洲部份,中國的投資亦承擔了過去多年少有的風險。美國近幾年,已不聲不響將軍事勢力滲透到非洲多國。明面上與早已潛伏在非洲多國的反政府在野政黨勢力策劃組織街頭運動,削弱民選政府的合法性及執政能力,暗地裡則找代理人乃至雇傭兵對中國企業加以破壞,威脅其員工的人生安全,以減低這些中國企業加大投入的積極性及拓展速度。

幾個大分區上各自遇到不同的困局及阻礙,中國需作策略調整,而對個別國家亦需要有所差別待遇。其中,宜重點扶植近鄰或對美國敵愾同仇的國家,如伊朗、敘利亞、巴基斯坦、尼泊爾、斯里蘭卡、老撾、朝鮮、蒙古、緬甸、柬埔寨、古巴、委內瑞拉及部分東南歐、南太平洋島國和非洲國家。現時美日澳印等國對中國的動向非常敏感,不斷在搞反華小動作。中國宜在事件出現後快速有力反擊,道義和國際關係對裝睡的這些國家並不起作用,有力量、佔理卻不直以對之,反而會助長這些國家的僥倖心理及反智野心,更會吸引其他牆頭草國家錯誤站隊美國,形成一個反華之「勢 」,不利後續的博弈。

美國大選正在倒計時,全球也正在猜誰是下一任領袖。然而不論誰上臺,美國共和黨和民主黨的共識仍然高度一致,加大對華科技的封鎖會升級,逼迫涉及美國核心產業的美資企業離開中國的壓力會升級,打壓中國優勢企業的強度會升級,拉攏盟友圍堵中國的熱度會升級。但正如毛主席所講,你打你的,我打我的,中國應該加強的是做好自己的事,如加快人民幣國際化步伐,有節奏有步調地拋掉巨額美元外匯儲備,增加糧食和各類資源儲備,增加軍費投入,優化戰略核力量體系和航空航太的投入,做好和五眼聯盟及日本進一步脫鉤的預案及準備,調整經濟上輸血臺灣間接讓利美國的對台政策以讓這些資源回饋內需內循環。

美國的霸權主義很大程度維繫在其軍事力量上,其戰略轟炸機及航母全球巡航,守護自身利益,壓制潛在對手及敵人的戰略冒險衝動。拳頭之下反而更能有效鞏固盟友忠誠。中國的一帶一路戰略,事關百年復興大計,尤其在這微妙的美中勢力交替的關鍵階段,又受百年未遇的疫情影響,宜因勢利導,略作調整,方可加強國家與美國博弈成功機率 。

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