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美國房地產市場泡沫警告初現

儘管遭遇疫情肆虐,但美國樓市卻是一片繁榮之景,近期美國房價大幅攀升,一些地區房價屢創新高。此次房價上漲與2008年有巨大區別,許多投資者在博伊西這樣的城市炒房而導致了價格飆升。美聯儲不斷大放水的時代背景下,市場對通貨膨脹的恐懼節節攀升,全美物價普漲。木材、水泥漲價,庫存不足,需求旺盛,在多重因素助推下,美國房價在過去半年多的時間裡一路飆升。

經濟學家預測,博伊西住房市場可能仍將保持高溫,就像丹佛等城市在2008年經濟危機期間經歷的那樣。美國上一次房地產崩盤出現在2008年,在“9·11”事件和互聯網泡沫破滅之後,美聯儲大幅降息,利率創下40年來新低。在寬鬆貨幣政策作用下,房地產信貸機構不斷放寬住房貸款條件,購房成本降低讓美國居民紛紛加入抵押貸款購房的行列,美國房地產市場飛速膨脹。那時,過剩的流動性催生了美國樓市泡沫,房價上漲遠遠超過了居民收入上漲。

2004年開始,基於對美國經濟復蘇的判斷以及對通脹走高的擔憂,美聯儲兩年內連續17次加息,聯邦基準利率從1%上調至2006年的5.25%,浮動的房貸利率也隨之走高,多數貸款人的還貸壓力逐步提升。基準利率的上升隨後刺破了美國房地產市場泡沫,2006年以後,標準普爾核心邏輯公司凱斯·希勒房地產價格指數開始大幅下跌。

據美國全國房地產經紀人協會最新統計,4月美國成屋銷售中間價同比大漲19.1%。其監測的美國183個大都市中,99%的地區房價在今年一季度出現上漲,其中89%的地區房價出現兩位元數躍升。美聯儲超低利率與政府高額新冠疫情補貼、保持社交距離等疫情防控措施以及購房適齡人群增加等因素抬升購房需求,而同時房屋庫存下滑、新房開工營建不足,由此導致的供應缺口是近期美國房價飆升的主要推手。

在美國當前低利率環境以及房地產市場供不應求的局面下,美國房價將持續攀升,成為少數表現較好的行業之一,快速上漲的房價也推升了美國通脹水準。去年以來,美聯儲超寬鬆貨幣政策帶來大量流動性,美國抵押貸款利率一直保持在較低水準。低利率使得可以承擔購房貸款成本的消費者人數增多,與此同時,消費者可以負擔總價更高的房屋,從而助推房價上漲。由於投資者預計疫情過後經濟會出現反彈,債券收益率會因此走高,大多數房地產市場分析人士預計,抵押貸款利率今年會在某種程度上溫和上升。業內人士認為,當前美國房地產市場已經初顯泡沫,美聯儲和監管層需要採取行動遏制房價。

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