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特朗普,你迫不死華為!

美國工業與安全部5月15日宣佈新規定,要求「使用了美國的技術或設計的半導體晶片廠商出口給華為時,必須得到美國政府的出口許可證,即使是在美國以外生產的廠商也不例外」。

這條美國法例不只限制美國企業,全球企業只要在產品中使用了哪怕一點兒美國技術,向華為出口時都需要許可證。這裡所指的技術,包括任何起源於美國的軟體,包括曾經是美國的技術但巳被外國企業收購(如ARM)的技術,甚至會包括起源於美國但已開源並由全球工程師持續義務完善的x86架構等等已無專利規限的技術。

這種長臂管治,已經超出了任何世貿(WTO)及講市場經濟自由貿易國家的法律及道德底線。就是一個目的,封殺華為。

而中短期目標,是讓美國有「理由」禁止全球最大晶片代工廠台積電向華為旗下的海思半導體供貨。

華為之所以被美國傾國之力針對,皆因華為的確是個奇跡。它是在美國的眼底下不知不覺地讓美國落後了。而其多項成就和中國的發展有其共性,就是小步快走,低調幹實事,在美國未及針對前就已經崛起。我們見到華為在5G領域領先全球,其實在4G時代華為已經悄悄超越所有對手了。而晶片領域,2018年世界所有專家也說十年內華為不可能追近美國水準。2年時間,華為麒麟系列晶片巳直逼美國高通等大型廠商(如高通的驍龍系列)。更重要的是,華為是互聯網通訊起家的全產業鏈公司,它從應用層開始,一直做一直優化、延展,再做到最艱苦的技術底層乃至築構了生態圈。可以說,全球沒有一家公司能像華為這樣,一家公司從應用層、底層、生態圈通吃,而且全具競爭力,根基實,深化度及擴張性非常強。

製造晶片是極難的工藝,這是一個高度複雜的系統工程。你可以想像,晶片的結構在萬倍的電子掃描鏡下,就有如縱橫交錯的天橋及高速公路。但這些高速公路,實際上只有髮絲的萬分之一的寬度。

而生產晶片,分工也極其講究。尤其隨著晶片功能擴展越快,其複雜性亦倍增。以建築上的分工為例,建築工程分為設計圖紙和施工隊,晶片生產也會分為設計與製造兩個部門。

負責設計晶片圖紙的,可稱為晶片設計公司。華為海思,高通(美國),聯發科(臺灣)等是其中幾個巨頭。晶片設計公司只負責畫設計圖紙,不負責生產製造。生產部份需找晶片代工廠生產。而負責將圖紙落地的晶片代工廠,就像建築工程中的施工隊,需要按照圖紙的設計,忠實地將房子建好。全球最頂尖的晶片代工廠是台積電(臺灣),其產出規模和技術含量全球無出其右。

因此,美國強制台積電不能向華為供應晶片。是要讓華為海思的設計,只能停留在圖紙階段,而隔絕所有代工廠不能落實其最新生代的晶片的生產。

內地最大的晶片代工廠中芯國際已在急起直追。美國壓力越大,國內的資源及訂單,尤其華為的訂單越密集。中芯國際已實現了14納米晶片的量產(雖然產量到2020年底時仍有極大缺口),並已向7納米晶片邁進。更重要的,是這批7納米晶片並不依賴現時最先進的EUV光刻機,並估計年內可以量產。可以說,這批7納米晶片是去美國化的,技術及機器設備上已高度脫離美國制肘。

14納米制程工藝的晶片,現在主要應用在中低端手機,而家電、車載、IOT等電子設備,亦普遍使用這類晶片。舉個例子,中芯國際14納米便給華為代工了麒麟710A晶片,良品率高達95以上。這保證了即使台積電斷供,華為也不致「芯髒」停頓。當然,效能會打折扣,能取得的量也受到限制。

現在,華為仍有120天期限向現有供應商追加訂單,以作庫存。之後將會是這場狙擊戰華為最黑暗時刻,能否延續其晶片生命線,有賴中芯國際、武漢弘芯、華虹半導體等國內晶片代工廠友好的發力,添置生產線、增加產量、去美國化的技術置換等等。而國企主導的基金亦已在5月15日表明會為中芯國際增資22億美元。

華為並不是一個企業在戰鬥。只要華為捱過這段艱苦期,死不了,美國逼死的,將會是美國的高通、思科、Intel等晶片巨頭,以及臺灣二線的晶片代工廠,因為特朗普已為這些公司去除了中國這個市場的需求,製造了多個迫不得已要拼死戰鬥的中國晶片巨企。

在〈特朗普,你迫不死華為!〉中有 17 則留言

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