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比特幣開年火爆,迎來新年開門紅

周六(1月2日),下午,比特幣的價格有史以來首次突破3.3萬美元,數小時前,比特幣的價格剛剛突破3萬美元,這說明繼創紀錄的2020年之後,今年的開局非常火爆。

3萬美元的比特幣什麽概念?這麽說,12月16日比特幣首次站上2萬美元後,如果當天買進,僅僅半個多月收益回報就高達50%。截至2020年12月28日,比特幣價格從2019年年底的7,200美元上升至27,084美元,漲幅接近3倍,幷且成爲年初以來漲幅最高的資産類別,甚至超過了FAAMNG科技巨頭指數。除了全球流動性寬鬆帶來的影響以外,分析認爲,過去一年以PayPal、Robinhood、Grayscale爲代表的金融機構在拓寬數字資産管道上的金融創新,是幣價過去一年上漲接近3倍背後的結構性原因。短期幣價可能受流動性以及投機資金進出推動,出現較大波動,但是長期來看,傳統投資人基礎的不斷擴大,利好比特幣等數字資産價格的穩定上升。

那麽,和三年前比特幣崩盤不同,即時幣圈的圈內人毫不諱言比特幣的暴漲已是一場大泡沫,但在全球天量流動性的驅動下,比特幣成了“剛性泡沫”。在新冠肺炎大流行期間,由于美聯儲將利率下調至接近零的水準(幷且料將在未來幾年保持在這一水準),投資者將大量資金投入比特幣和其他加密貨幣,以謀求更高的回報。與此同時,歐美央行推出極度寬鬆的貨幣政策推高了金融市場的通脹預期,而比特幣被視爲對沖通脹的最佳工具之一,這也是投資者紛紛涌入比特幣的原因之一。高盛此前指出,比特幣是對沖通脹的工具,可以與黃金共存。

然而對比實物貨幣的四個特徵發現,比特幣在普遍接受性和價值穩定兩方面尚不能媲美黃金等實物貨幣,但可以滿足價值均勻可分性,在輕便和易携帶性上具備實物貨幣難以比擬的優勢。比特幣替代信用貨幣的最大障礙正是去中心化的特性,沒有信用基礎的比特幣不能很好地行使貨幣的職能。借鑒比特幣相關技術,研發央行數位貨幣的首要出發點是補充與替代傳統實物貨幣。

如果說上一波行情的暴漲是由于大量散戶抱著賭一把的心態沖進了市場,推動了幣價,那麽這次的行情很大程度上得益于機構的入局。一般而言,當風險可控時,機構才會加入,而機構的加入提供了充裕的資金,也提高了未來的收益預期。比特幣開門紅是否能繼續突破歷史,市場將全方位拭目以待。

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