blog

歐洲淪為中美博弈戰場

受中美越演越烈的博弈外延效應影響,歐洲板塊出現不同對中國有特定影響的標誌性事件。其中包括英法兩國相繼表態限制華為5G在當地發展,以及英國企圖以英國國民(海外)護照(BNO)對中國施壓而國家迅速作出反制措施。

2020年6月底到7月中,英國及法國政府曾先後表示不會回應美國排除華為5G在本國的建設。但隨後一個星期,英法打倒“昨日之我”,相繼表態限制華為5G在當地發展。

7月14日,英國政府官方網站發出公告:2021年起將禁止英國運營商購買華為的5G設備。而在2027年以前華為將被排除出英國的5G設備供應。

按文字解讀,這個決定對華為在英國的實際運營以及在歐洲的整體宣傳上是極為不利的。


但魔鬼在細節,若對細則進行研究,能看到英國政府周旋於中美大國博弈之間的老謀深算,外交關係、經濟實利及國內選票皆是面面俱到。

其實,距離2027年還有7年時間,以華為5G的公開資料顯示,最早於2018年前後已開始部署。因此,到了2027年,該批基站設備已使用10年,也接近要更新換代或淘汰的時間。而且科技日新月異,2020年不少國家宣佈已開始研發6G,七年後已不知是什麼G的年代。


而電訊市場只爭朝夕,英國電訊商亦已表示,十年內離不了華為的技術。英國這個歐洲的主要市場,華為實際上沒有失去什麼。

法國的情況其實亦大同小異。

商人逐利,英法政府逐選票,如果其他5G供應商性價比低而收費高,轉換設備又需要額外花費,現在迫不得已要向美國表態。但難保美國大選後,美國總統換屆了,民主共和兩黨在新一屆政府交接的鬥爭中無暇外雇,英法政府又在本國電訊商的遊說壓力下,事件會不了了之。

這種表態雖然短期內對華為的經濟利益沒有損失,而英法這個行為更多是向美國表忠心,但站隊的國家一旦多了,難保沒有其他中小型國家繼續行差踏錯,影響華為的全球5G佈局,乃至其它中國科技企業的海外出口。


而華為亦一改過往的隱忍,作出反制,宣佈將會收取其他5G供應商或運營商的專利費用。這個費用動輒可達數億至十數億歐元,對其他歐洲國家亦有警示作用。

至於最終是美國施予的政治壓力及英法左右搖擺所起的示範作用力量強大,還是華為表示收取5G供應商或運營商的專利費用的經濟力量加上德國堅持使用華為5G的引導力量更大,這個風向及影響仍有待觀察。

另外,是英國挑起的海外護照之爭。日前英國公佈持有英國國民(海外)護照(BNO)的港人可於2021年1月起申請居留最長5年,之後再居住滿1年便可申請入籍。外交部23日表示,因應英國違反承諾,中國考慮不承認BNO為有效旅行證件,並保留採取進一步措施的權利。

《中英聯合聲明》附件一英方備忘錄中,明文協議,持有BNO的港人不(被)賦予在英國的居留權,因此持有BNO的港人都被視為中國公民(可參照《中英聯合聲明》附件二中方備忘錄),中方亦明確表示會視BNO為有效「旅行證件」。

英國打破雙方共識,提出讓300萬持有BNO的港人有資格申請成為英國公民,直接改變了BNO性質,這批BNO持有人的「中國公民」身份亦已改變,有可能被視為基本法第24條第4款內的「非中國籍人士」。

之後,如果BNO持有人要重新成為「香港永久居民」,便必須在國家正式不承認BNO之日起,「在香港通常居住連續七年以上並以香港為永久居住地」,才會被視為香港永久居民,並享有選舉權和被選舉權。

9月新一屆立法會選舉太迫在眉睫,是否會將立法會選舉延至下年亦是一個延伸問題。讓為數眾多持有BNO的參選人及選民決定是放棄BNO以保留選舉和被選舉權利,或保留BNO並在明年1月向英國申請居留權,這需要讓港人有一段冷靜思考的時間。


這是英國違背了承諾及中英雙方的默契,而讓持有BNO的港人需要面臨這兩難的局面。

當然,若上述情況出現,難免涉及司法覆核乃至需要人大釋法的情況,這又是中國與英美之間可見未來另一番博弈。

兩件事件似沒有關聯,但其實只要明白中美博弈會隨美國大選逼近而加劇這條主線,便會明白其中的內聯性。

英國由政治上站隊美國,經濟上誠實地與中國合作,到政治蓋過經濟的轉變,對歐洲這個板塊有微妙而實質的影響。而中國未來對這些挑釁所作出回應的時間,亦只會越來越快於外界之預估。

中國關閉美國駐成都總領館,以回應美國無理關閉中國駐休斯頓領事館一事,亦是以上博弈邏輯的延伸。

當斷不斷,反受其亂也。

在〈歐洲淪為中美博弈戰場〉中有 3,180 則留言

  1. Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article.

    I will be sure to bookmark it and return to read more of
    your useful information. Thanks for the post.
    I’ll definitely comeback.

  2. When someone writes an post he/she retains the thought of a user in his/her mind that how a user
    can be aware of it. Therefore that’s why this piece of writing is outstdanding.
    Thanks!

  3. Undeniably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the internet the simplest thing to be aware of.
    I say to you, I certainly get irked while people consider worries that they plainly
    do not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also
    defined out the whole thing without having side effect
    , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get
    more. Thanks

  4. Hey! I could have sworn I’ve been to this site before but after
    checking through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.
    Anyhow, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back often!

  5. Thanks for another informative website. The place else could I get that kind of info written in such an ideal approach?

    I have a challenge that I’m just now working on, and I have been at the look out for such
    info.

    Feel free to surf to my web site: UltraCut Keto

  6. Hello.This article was really fascinating,
    particularly since I was looking for thoughts on this subject last week.

    Also visit my webpage – PeniSize XL Review (Dorcas)

  7. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thank you, However I
    am experiencing difficulties with your RSS. I don’t know why
    I am unable to join it. Is there anybody else getting identical RSS problems?
    Anyone who knows the answer can you kindly respond?
    Thanks!!

    Here is my blog UltraCut Keto, aposta18.com,

  8. I just now wanted to thank you once more for the amazing blog you have made here.
    It can be full of ideas for those who are genuinely interested in this specific subject, particularly this very post.

    You’re really all so sweet in addition to thoughtful of others in addition to the fact that reading your website posts
    is a good delight if you ask me. And what generous treat! Mary and
    I really have excitement making use of your points in what we should instead do
    in the near future. Our record is a kilometer long which means your tips will certainly be put to very good use.

    My web blog :: Keto BHB Plus Reviews

  9. My spouse and i ended up being absolutely happy Raymond managed
    to complete his investigation through the ideas he had while using
    the web site. It is now and again perplexing to just continually be making a gift of methods which often some
    people may have been trying to sell. We figure out we have got
    the website owner to thank because of that. The
    main explanations you have made, the easy web site menu, the relationships you
    will help instill – it’s everything impressive, and it’s really facilitating
    our son and our family do think this idea is satisfying, which is certainly
    highly essential. Thanks for all!

    Look at my homepage :: https://ebmelectronics.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=767670

  10. Everything said made a ton of sense. However, what about this?
    suppose you added a little content? I mean, I don’t want to tell you how to run your website,
    but suppose you added something that makes people desire more?

    I mean 歐洲淪為中美博弈戰場 – Blockchain | Hong Kong | 香港區塊鏈產業協會-HKBIA is kinda boring.
    You should glance at Yahoo’s home page and note how they create news titles to get people to click.
    You might add a related video or a pic or two to get people
    interested about what you’ve written. Just my opinion, it would make
    your posts a little livelier.

  11. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a colleague
    who has been conducting a little research on this. And he
    actually bought me breakfast because I found it for him…
    lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending
    time to discuss this matter here on your site.

    Here is my website; Testo Bull Reviews

  12. Great ? I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your site.
    I had no trouble navigating through all tabs and related information ended
    up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found
    what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Quite unusual.

    Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or something,
    website theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate.

    Nice task.

    My blog :: Hans

  13. I’ve been browsing on-line greater than 3 hours nowadays, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.
    It’s lovely price sufficient for me. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good
    content material as you did, the net shall be a lot more useful
    than ever before.

    My web page Far East XL Pills

  14. I just like the valuable info you supply for your articles.
    I’ll bookmark your weblog and test again here regularly.

    I’m rather certain I will be informed a lot of new stuff proper right here!
    Good luck for the next!

    Look at my web site Arctic Box Reviews

  15. Magnificent beat ! I would like to apprentice even as you amend your web site, how can i
    subscribe for a weblog website? The account aided me a acceptable deal.

    I had been a little bit familiar of this your broadcast
    provided vivid transparent idea.

    My web blog :: CutSlim Keto Pills

  16. My spouse and i still can’t quite feel that I could be one of those reading through the important suggestions found on your blog.
    My family and I are seriously thankful on your generosity
    and for providing me the chance to pursue my personal chosen career
    path. Appreciate your sharing the important information I
    acquired from your web site.

    my web site: 98e.fun

  17. Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found
    that it is truly informative. I am going to watch out
    for brussels. I?ll be grateful if you continue this in future.
    Many people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

    my blog – eating pyramid

  18. constantly i used to read smaller content that also clear their motive,
    and that is also happening with this paragraph which I am reading at this place.

    my page; Octavia

  19. Hello! I know this is sort of off-topic however
    I had to ask. Does managing a well-established website such as
    yours require a massive amount work? I’m brand new to writing a blog however I do write
    in my diary daily. I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my personal experience and thoughts online.
    Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for new aspiring blog owners.
    Thankyou!

    Here is my blog :: eating healthier

  20. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site.
    I am hoping the same high-grade web site post from you in the upcoming also.
    Actually your creative writing abilities has encouraged
    me to get my own website now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings quickly.
    Your write up is a great example of it.

    Have a look at my website: blast belly fat

  21. Heya just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a
    few of the images aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
    I’ve tried it in two different internet browsers and
    both show the same results.

    Stop by my web blog :: Sara

  22. I precisely needed to thank you very much once more.
    I am not sure the things I would have implemented in the absence of the methods contributed by you directly on that subject matter.
    Previously it was a very distressing situation in my position, but
    noticing the very specialised approach you handled it
    forced me to leap over contentment. I am just grateful for
    this advice and believe you recognize what a great job that
    you’re undertaking instructing the rest through your site.
    Most likely you have never got to know any of us.

    Also visit my web blog; https://tanglewood.sh/index.php?topic=42673.0

  23. That is really fascinating, You are a very professional blogger.
    I have joined your rss feed and look ahead to in search of more of your magnificent post.
    Also, I’ve shared your web site in my social networks!

    Also visit my site omega 3

  24. Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favourite justification appeared to be at the net the simplest thing to
    keep in mind of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed
    even as other folks consider issues that they plainly do not understand about.
    You controlled to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing with no need side effect ,
    other folks can take a signal. Will likely be again to get more.

    Thank you!

    Here is my page :: http://www.a913.vip/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2349247

  25. I’m commenting to make you understand what a brilliant discovery our princess
    obtained visiting your blog. She discovered
    lots of issues, which included what it’s like to possess an excellent teaching style to make most people quite simply know precisely
    a number of extremely tough subject areas. You truly did more than her expectations.
    Thank you for supplying those effective, trusted, revealing and
    in addition fun tips about the topic to Sandra.

    my page … weed indoors

  26. We stumbled over here coming from a different website and thought
    I may as well check things out. I like what I see so
    now i’m following you. Look forward to looking at your web page repeatedly.

    My web site; Dana

  27. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a colleague who has been doing a
    little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch
    because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this….
    Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this
    matter here on your internet site.

    Have a look at my web blog … cleansing skin care

  28. I simply could not depart your site before suggesting that I really loved the standard info a person provide in your guests? Is going to be again steadily in order to check out new posts|

  29. I just wanted to thank you once more for this amazing web-site you have made here.
    Its full of useful tips for those who are really interested in this subject, especially this very post.
    You’re really all so sweet and thoughtful of others and reading your
    blog posts is an excellent delight in my opinion.
    And exactly what a generous reward! Ben and I really have
    enjoyment making use of your points in what we should instead do in the
    near future. Our collection of ideas is a kilometer long
    so your tips might be put to beneficial use.

    Here is my blog … http://www.costidell.com

  30. This is a really good tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Brief but very precise information… Thanks for sharing this one. A must read post!|

  31. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m not 100 positive. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Kudos|

  32. I think this is one of the most important information for me. And i am glad reading your article. But wanna remark on some general things, The web site style is perfect, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers|

  33. Very good blog you have here but I was curious about if you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics talked about here? I’d really love to be a part of community where I can get feedback from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Thank you!|

  34. Normally I don’t learn post on blogs, however I would like to say that this write-up very compelled me to try and do so! Your writing taste has been amazed me. Thanks, quite nice article.|

  35. Hi there! I could have sworn I’ve been to your blog before but after browsing through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Regardless, I’m definitely happy I came across it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!|

  36. Thanks a lot for sharing this with all of us you really realize what you are speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly also discuss with my web site =). We may have a link change arrangement among us|

  37. This is a cool game where you just need to study 2 images that are almost identical and spot the differences between them. It might seem hard to do that at first, but it’s a very interesting and exciting game with a lot of fun stuff to focus on. You should always try to think outside the box when it comes to Zoom activities, and this one really pushes the boundaries while still being very easy to connect with. Cards Against HumanityWith some minor adjustments you can play this well-known one party game perfect via Zoom. You don’t even need the real deck. Via a free downloadable PDF each player prints their own tickets and from there it is simple. Each round, someone asks a question from a black card, to which the other players answer with what they think is the most accurate answer from a white card.
    https://wegetitperiod.com/community/profile/debrar979381302/
    Video games are a great way to spend time with friends—especially when they’re created with that exact purpose in mind. Party games are great for getting a group of people together for something fun, creating memories of triumph, laughter, and at times, unbridled rage. And whether your friends are near or far, you can find plenty of games like this for your PC. Our list of the best free games will keep your days filled with fun and adventure, even when your wallet is just full of dust and spiderwebs. Games you can play without spending a cent are getting bigger and better, and the industry has come a long way since the early days of murky microtransactions and lackluster loot boxes. We’ve compiled a list of the brightest and best free games where – even if the only thing you invest is your precious free time – you’re guaranteed some back account-friendly frolics.

  38. Thanks for some other informative site. Where else could I am getting that kind of information written in such a perfect method? I’ve a project that I’m simply now working on, and I have been at the look out for such info.|

  39. Howdy would you mind letting me know which webhost you’re working with? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most. Can you recommend a good web hosting provider at a fair price? Thank you, I appreciate it!|

  40. I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it. I’ve got you book marked to look at new stuff you post…|

  41. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I am hoping to view the same high-grade blog posts from you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my very own site now ;)|

  42. Woah! I’m really loving the template/theme of this website. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s very difficult to get that “perfect balance” between superb usability and visual appearance. I must say that you’ve done a awesome job with this. In addition, the blog loads very quick for me on Safari. Outstanding Blog!|

  43. Hello! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I really enjoy reading your articles. Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same subjects? Thanks!|

  44. I think that is among the such a lot vital info for me. And i’m satisfied studying your article. However want to commentary on few general issues, The site taste is wonderful, the articles is really excellent : D. Just right job, cheers|

  45. Erotic Massage Turns Into An Anal Sex Fuck Fest With A Huge Cock You are now leaving Pornhub.com Working MILF takes her first anal relaxation massage filipina massage parlor visit for happy ending with two young asian girls Lover Massage Butt Girl and had Anal Sex while Girl Play Pussy Vibrator – Creampie Popular Tags To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Sexy Chick Seduced And Fucked Hard By Her Massage Therapist You are now leaving Pornhub.com RIM4K. Elegant wife in sexy lingerie gives her spouse anilingus Popular Filters Sexual Japanese Massage Real Amateur Milf Big Boobs Hot Mature Amateur Naked Voyeur Voyeur Cams Amateur Mature Porn – massage sex masseur hot milf cougar hairy old young real amateur porn videos Popular Filters http://stephenunet764319.bloggerbags.com/10122235/erotic-massage-everett If you are on a personal connection, like at home, you can run an anti-virus scan on your device to make sure it is not infected with malware. You further acknowledge that You understand that other than as set forth herein, we do not screen, endorse, monitor, control, investigate, supervise any advertisements or communications submitted to the Websites by third-party licensees, advertisers, or Users for electronic dissemination through the Websites. All Users of the Websites are therefore cautioned and advised to use their own judgment to evaluate all advertisements and other communications available at or through the use of the Websites prior to purchasing goods and or services described at the Websites or otherwise responding to any communication at the Websites. Please stand by, while we are checking your browser…

  46. May I simply say what a comfort to uncover somebody that actually knows what they’re talking about online. You certainly realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people have to look at this and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you’re not more popular given that you surely have the gift.

  47. I’m more than happy to find this page. I wanted to thank you for your time due to this fantastic read!! I definitely loved every part of it and i also have you saved to fav to look at new things in your blog.

  48. This is the right webpage for anyone who wants to understand this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a topic that has been written about for decades. Wonderful stuff, just excellent!|

  49. The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a thirty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!|

  50. Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading it, you could be a great author. I will ensure that I bookmark your blog and will come back in the future. I want to encourage yourself to continue your great posts, have a nice holiday weekend!|

  51. Русское порно с пьяным батей и девственницей порно видео онлайн смотреть бесплатно Вы будете смеяться, но в этом оказался замешанным секс. Нет – нет, не подумайте плохого. Как – то раз мы с Женькой раздобыли на один день у кого – то из старших мальчишек с нашего двора порнографические карты. Помните, в семидесятые годы ходили по рукам маленькие, самодельные, очень плохие фотокоп… Питерская девственница мастурбирует перед камерой соло Пикантное devstvennitsa порно подойдет тем, кто любит натуральность и реальность. Здесь самые обычные люди занимаются обыкновенным сексом у себя дома. Смазливые жены с мужьями, любовники с любовницами, парни с девушками. Русское порно с первым аналом девственницы порно видео онлайн смотреть бесплатно Ариелла морская Русалка девственница Питерская девственница мастурбирует перед камерой соло Засаживает жилистый стояк в невинную пизду красивой девственницы https://sunneez.com/talkingdrum/community/profile/bennettsikora26/ для компьютера Сайт содержит контент для пользователей старше 18 лет Лучшая минетчица Бланш Bradburry виртуозно владеет оральным сексом для компьютера Крупным планом сучка делает большой минет Крутой мотоцикл делает ее более крутой чем любой парень Минет крупным планом, парень сам снимает, как ему сосут Самый лучший минет от брюнеточки Красивая девушка круто делает минет Лучшая минетчица Бланш Bradburry виртуозно владеет оральным сексом Сайт содержит контент для пользователей старше 18 лет Юная девушка делает крутой минет перед камерой Самый лучший минет от брюнеточки Крутой мотоцикл делает ее более крутой чем любой парень Остались силы?! Пальни ещё здесь! Не жалей патронов! Самый лучший минет от брюнеточки Остались силы?! Пальни ещё здесь! Не жалей патронов! Минет крупным планом, парень сам снимает, как ему сосут Крутой минет крупным планом

  52. Thank you for another fantastic post. The place else may just anyone get that type of info in such an ideal approach of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am at the search for such information.|

  53. Normally I don’t learn article on blogs, however I would like to say that this write-up very compelled me to take a look at and do so! Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, quite nice post.|

  54. Hey there! I’m at work surfing around your blog from my new iphone! Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all your posts! Carry on the excellent work!|

  55. I think this is among the most significant info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But wanna remark on few general things, The web site style is great, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers|

  56. Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all of us you actually understand what you’re talking about! Bookmarked. Please also visit my site =). We could have a link change arrangement among us|