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智能汽車的一次「產業世界大戰」

2021 開年最受關注的產業,電動車當之無愧,除了特斯拉銷量幾乎達標 50 萬輛,各大車廠也全力衝刺,在後疫情時代電動車就像是一盞救世明燈,甚至連科技業都不甘寂寞準備參戰,原因就是看准電動車一往無前的強勁動能。預估到2030年,全球電動車銷售量可達到2200萬輛,較目前市場規模成長近10 倍,未來10年年平均複合成長率將達27%。

蘋果預計2024年首發電動汽車Apple Car

蘋果公司正推進自動駕駛汽車技術,目標是在2024年生產一款汽車,可能包含蘋果自己研發的突破性電池技術,傳言蘋果正在開發名為「泰坦計畫」的自駕電動車。大量證據表明該公司正在從事與車輛有關的工作,而最近的報導指出蘋果可能與另一家汽車製造商合作製造車輛。

Apple Car超越汽車本身概念

表面上看起來,蘋果從做手機跨到做汽車,似乎是一個很巨大的跳躍。一個是終端售價三萬左右的消費性電子產品,另一個則是隨便就上百萬的重型民用機械(這裡的重型是跟手機的大小相比)。而從產業上來說,科技產業,似乎本來也跟汽車產業之間,井水不犯河水。全球汽車產業的幾個龍頭,從福斯、豐田到通用,基本上都是老牌車廠,做了幾十年的車。

而科技巨頭公司,從蘋果到穀歌到微軟,即使會生產硬體,也都是在電腦通訊等3C領域,很少會跨界入侵到其他傳產領域。雖然汽車領域近年出了一家特斯拉,把汽車搞得越來越像比較大型比較貴的科技產品,但畢竟特斯拉本來就是一家電動車公司,原本就在汽車這個賽道,跟傳統的科技巨頭原本有各自擅長的本業還是有差別。所以我想對於大多數的人來說,第一眼看到蘋果可能想跨入汽車產業這件事,一定是又驚又疑,不知道是否該相信這個消息的真假。

目前蘋果官方既沒有展示Apple Car產品實體圖,也沒有Apple Car相關功能介紹,消費者對Apple Car的概念和功能還是不清楚。但市場估計Apple Car潛在有8大智能功能,包括智能車門、AR系統、智能車窗、防暈系統、數字車鑰、CarPlay平臺、全新電池及自動泊車、無線充電。

此外,據網路媒體從蘋果申請的眾多專利技術分析,蘋果是用科技業的方法,重新設計未來汽車的運作方式,未來的Apple Car所有觸控都是隱藏式,車窗就是大螢幕,而車燈也改用光纖可隨時變更圖案;甚至,因應自駕全新設計車內空間。這些技術將讓原本狹窄的空間,變成行動辦公室、會議室、電影院。就像iPhone不只是電話,Apple Car也不再只是一部汽車。

蘋果優勢

多年過去,蘋果的動作也僅僅局限於一些自動駕駛應用和系統的研發,陸續申請了不少汽車專利,充電、自動駕駛、生物識別、車載系統等造車核心領域,並沒有直接官宣研發整車的計畫,過去幾年中,關於Apple Car的消息也只是零星流傳與坊間。

2020年年末蘋果已計畫在美設廠生產Apple Car,並開始與全球車用電子供應鏈上下游洽談,瞭解相關技術規格、報價等問題。同年12月,多家媒體傳出蘋果正與台積電合作開發自動駕駛汽車晶片的消息。蘋果具備開發第一流自動駕駛處理器晶片的能力,而這將會是次世代汽車產業最關鍵的競爭力。這也是傳統車廠所欠缺的能力,傳統車廠並沒有辦法自行設計強大的自動駕駛晶片。此外,蘋果擁有一個非常龐大的網路生態,汽車將成為串聯起蘋果旗下所有生態應用的最好載體。

蘋果公司強大的財力也是一大亮點,蘋果是市值超過兩兆美元的公司,現金流量更為充足,也讓蘋果能更加從容。福斯執行長也表示,與豐田這種傳統汽車大廠比起來,資金雄厚的技術巨頭蘋果入場,他們將面臨更大的壓力。Wedbush證券公司分析師艾夫斯預估:「電動車市場規模有望在未來十年擴大至5兆美元,若蘋果攫取其中僅5%至10%市占,這可能成為蘋果另一大成長支柱。」

市場腹地廣闊,現代汽車集團有多年的造車經驗,在北美也有成熟的造車體系,能夠快速地説明蘋果將產品推向市場,而不需要新建產線和電動車供應鏈體系。所以,現代汽車依然是蘋果的重要候選物件之一。

電車行業現狀:科技巨頭的聚會

聞訊趕來的科技公司除了蘋果還有穀歌、微軟、亞馬遜。其中,Google以提供套件的方式,讓汽車代工廠或品牌可以用較低成本導入Android系統。福特宣佈與Google達成包含人工智能、雲端應用,以及包含資料分析與行動平臺應用的數字轉型合作協定。在相關協議中,除了確認福特將以Google Cloud作為雲端服務平臺,同時未來福特打造車款也會整合Android平臺服務,讓車主能原生使用Google Assistant、Google Maps等服務。之前,Google也已經與雷諾達成協議,並且以Google Cloud雲端服務平臺作為雷諾車款連接平臺。

Google還擁有Android Auto服務,汽車只要接上Android手機,就可以切換成Android Auto選單;而誕生自Google實驗室的自動駕駛公司Waymo,也是自動駕駛技術的領跑者。業內人士預測,到了2025年,Android AutomotiveOS的市占可達17%。

此外,科技巨頭結盟車廠,積極橫跨交通版圖。

通用汽車旗下的自駕技術子公司Cruise,2021年1月接受母公司和微軟20億美元的投資,並與微軟達成戰略性合作,使用其雲端平臺Azure車輛平臺服務,與此同時,微軟也與Volvo、日產(Nissan)和豐田等汽車集團合作,積極拓展在交通運輸領域的存在感。

繼2019年前後投資自動駕駛車廠Aurora、領投電動卡車新創Rivian之後,亞馬遜2020年再以12億美元收購自駕車新創Zoox。亞馬遜投資Rivian的目的就是期望購買Rivian電動皮卡,已組建物流配送車隊。

根據Morgan Stanley預估,亞馬遜的運輸成本在未來幾年內很可能會達到900億美元,收購Zoox之後,將讓這家線上零售巨擘每一年節省超過200億美元。更重要的是,自動駕駛技術解決方案可以擴展、調正並應用于亞馬遜的倉儲和分銷流程。

未來汽車發展方向:全面數字化

相較于傳統的燃油車,電動車的技術難度大幅降低。AI、自動駕駛、5G以及互聯汽車等技術都為汽車行業帶來顛覆性的變革。消費者著重于科技與智能上的體驗。在這個方面,科技巨頭正好具備了領先于傳統汽車大廠的研發能力。與此同時,用戶體驗的重視,亦如智能型手機當年顛覆傳統手機,成就新的產業革命。

在〈智能汽車的一次「產業世界大戰」〉中有 245 則留言

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