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從比特幣暴跌解讀2021年區塊鏈

進入1月,比特幣從3萬美元漲至4萬美元,用了不到一周的時間。比特幣再陷暴跌,于1月21日大跌超10%,截至23日報32,619美元。

在比特幣暴漲暴跌背後,是全球金融市場對于通脹預期的分歧,以及漲速過快後投機者的獲利了結。那麽在比特幣這個“巨型泡沫”背後,究竟其底層的區塊鏈技術在2021年是否有更多的發展前景?

對于比特幣近期的暴跌,市場一直有觀點認爲,應該清醒地看到比特幣是一種高風險資産,而不是避險資産。而且比特幣作爲一種特殊的資産類別,不同于股票或債券,不會産生任何可預期的現金流,投資者獲取回報的唯一方式是比特幣價格的上漲,因此更容易形成投機性泡沫。

早前,各界認爲,區塊鏈將被用來構建新一代金融基礎設施,包括清算和支付。相比中心化的信用保證機制,使用區塊鏈可以降低成本。區塊鏈的技術特點,例如鏈上數據難以篡改、不可撤銷,在供應鏈、物流、溯源等行業都可以發揮重要作用。但事實上,業內人士如今的共識也在于,儘管傳統金融存在低效的一面,但低效往往爲的是合規、風控。此外,例如央行已經作爲一個有效的中心化的調控機制,真要轉爲分布式、去中心化是缺乏意義的。

如果金融行業一定要用人工智能、區塊鏈,要加前提,即在什麽樣場景和金融痛點的情况下需要用區塊鏈,什麽樣情况下需要用中央管控的數據結構。不可能全是分布式的,同樣也不可能全是集中式的,關鍵要根據監管結構、監管的內容和監管的目標來决定。

不難發現,區塊鏈應用存在現實挑戰,找到合適的場景至關重要。在當前的金融科技範式中,無論是傳統的互聯網平臺亦或是區塊鏈平臺大都是以數據孤島的形式存在的——用戶和開發人員或多或少會受到平臺功能或其他的限制。互操作性是區塊鏈行業的未來,事務一致性是跨鏈,或者更廣義的互操作性的大目標,這是整個區塊鏈生態與傳統互聯網世界實現協同,大規模構建未來數字經濟和‘下一代互聯網’的一個基礎。

儘管目前已經有了很多互操作性協議,但大部分都集中在“資産轉移”這部分, 這其實是跨鏈世界中極小的一塊拼圖。除了各個區塊鏈之間的互通,區塊鏈和傳統平臺之間的互通也是我們尚需克服的一大難題。

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