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大國博弈下的期油負數之戰

大國博弈下的金融戰影響廣泛。4月底的WTI的5月期油合約跌至負37.6美元一桶收市,歷史未見,令不少機構投資者、散戶乃至ETF基金也措手不及。有傳亞洲區部份投資人因是次事件損失超300多億。

其實,紐約期貨交易所於結算日前不到2個星期(4月15日)忽然改變遊戲規則修改原期油貨可以負值買賣已聞埋伏味道。幾間重磅大銀行,乃至在證券市場上市的ETF基金,也因為這一輪油價急挫而輸得一塌糊塗。以香港上市的F三星原油期貨(03175.HK)為例,在油災中的表現有其借鑒之處。

三星完成結算5月份期油合約後,油價波動仍非常劇烈。其所應對的風險管理措施為將6月份期油合約,轉倉至9月份期油合約(乃至10月和12月的合約),以及採取認沽期權對沖策略。三星的做法引起市場爭議,有投資者認為三星有違合約精神之嫌。但市場大幅波動時調整轉倉屬於ETF風險管理的一種,不在章程硬性限制之列。而4月底期油價走勢極端異常,三星能走於市場同業之先,某程度上也算先知先覺,而其後陸續有不少類似的ETF基金,乃至標普道鐘斯也採取相同策略以對沖中長期風險。分別只是大家平倉及對沖後能挽回投資者多少損失而已。但類似基金作出類似措施以應對市場變化也是無可厚非。當然,即使中期油價回升,三星的原油期貨ETF需要比油價升幅更大才有機會追回之前的損失。同時轉了倉仍存在下跌風險,因為期貨合約始終與油價走向相關。

中美貿易戰發展之初,很多人不相信會發展成更多無下限手段,如對華為超限科技戰、如這次原油期貨負數事件的金融戰、乃至透過疫情抹黑中國的輿論戰及索賠戰。這些全是超越道德底線及法律的武器。這次紐約期油轉為負數的油災事件,便反映了本港投資者未瞭解全球波動下商品期貨產品的投資風險。風高浪急下,相關發行者或監管機構有必要加強投資者教育及市場的整體風控。

未來,業務與美國相關的企業,或者商品期貨平臺,乃至資產在美國的機構及個人投資者,應要小心美國下一步的多維度無下限之超限戰。保持好流動性,適當將資產調回亞洲,投資上也要減低杠杆比例,以策萬全。

之前提到的數位人民幣DCEP,有不少朋友進一步來查詢。DCEP不是速成的萬靈丹,2020年亦是需要循序漸進的一年。把關好國內的資本不流失,美國印的銀紙不會大舉湧來炒高樓市股市。國際間的大宗商品逐漸用人民幣或DCEP去結算。做好這幾步,國內金融穩定便得以維持,人民幣國際化亦邁進了一大步,同時美元霸權離終結仍需要相當長時間,畢竟半個世紀以來全球對美國強大的話語權及金融掌控權的慣性太大。

而在全球金融板塊持續移動下,香港宜思進取,保根基。如果持續讓國內資本及國際資本外流,實際經營業務流走。那香港更有可能向成為Cayman/ BVI這種離岸金融殼公司聚集地的方向發展,國際金融中心及資產管理中心的地位會成為歷史。

在〈大國博弈下的期油負數之戰〉中有 125 則留言

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