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博而不弈在中印,博弈藝術此中尋

中國與印度的領土糾紛,最主要有兩大板塊,一塊是西藏南端的藏南地區,另一塊則是中國新疆與西藏唯一陸路交通較為平坦的交接之處 -- 阿克塞欽地區。而阿克塞欽地區的敏感之處,又在於其同時毗鄰印度與巴基斯坦一直爭奪控制權的克什米爾區域。

印度在南亞諸國當中,多年來一直比較霸道。亦可能近60年來,除了在中國手上吃過大虧外,對體量及國力遠遜於他的其他南亞小國,一直存在碾壓之勢。印度長期跟巴基斯坦對峙,爭奪克什米爾地區;早年吞併錫金,政治經濟上接管不丹,以能源為脅封鎖尼泊爾,武力威嚇孟加拉和斯里蘭卡影響其外交決策等等。可以説,印度從未放過任何擴張領土的機會,而美國是默許印度這個盟友以上的所作所為的,中國的持續忍讓及「不干預他國內政」則被印度視為軟弱可欺,使其更不知收斂,野心更為膨脹。

近兩年印度與巴基斯坦、中國、尼泊爾三國持續發生軍事及準軍事沖突,而且在中國轉為積極防禦的政策及行動中,印度多以吃虧收場。但印度仍不以為這是實力對比下的必然結果,反以為只是己方大意所致。2020年6月在加勒萬河谷的中印衝突中,20多個印度兵不戰而折,在高原地區凍斃,反而激出了印方軍方好戰的性格,企圖三面出擊。其戰略判斷的確令人費解。

網上不少人說,近年中國和印度經濟貿易往來持續增加,雙方磨合越深的經濟利益會更好化解邊界分歧。這個觀點忽略了印度奇葩的民族性,恰恰相反,在普遍印度人的眼中,兩國經濟往來的加深,由於印度是貿易進口遠高於出口,中國人必然更為受益(這有點像美國人的思維),印度因此有更強的籌碼及談判能力跟中國博弈及討價還價。

有跟印度人商業及民事往來過的人可能都有一些經驗,就是印度人在談判上比較難纏,誇張點說,商業上他們能跟對手軟磨硬泡幾小時只為了百份之零點零幾的差價。而一旦讓印度人掌握心理上的主動權,摩擦以至談判破裂是很經常發生的結果。

再看環球政經的歷史,經濟的深化,即使在互惠互利的基礎上,從來不能化解民族及政治及宗教理念的分歧,否則第一次及第二次世界大戰便不會爆發了。尤其當年歐洲各國的貿易融合程度已相當密切。因此,今天中印的對峙,與1962年沒有本質區別,皆由於印度自我膨脹,並得到美國有限度的支持,加上美國出台錯誤評估中印軍力的報告以作煽動,使印度更深化其慣性的戰略錯判,認為中國面對多方壓力不敢亦不會反擊印度,從而變得極為盲目冒進及具攻擊性。這個時候若中國不採取果斷措施,當頭棒喝,將會後患無窮,惹來兩國更大的兵災。

有朋友認為,中國要開打,也應挑菲律賓、越南等小國,甚至台灣地區。但「以大欺小」之下,國際輿論和歐美的外交壓力,似乎亦是另一場更難纏的仗。

與印度開打則不同。中印國土面積及人口相當,出現沖突乃至有限度的戰爭,沒有人會以為中國以大欺小。而一直受印度欺壓的多個南亞小國,外交不能算完全獨立自主。以斯里蘭卡為例,該國本想與中國在一帶一路中合作,但在印度海軍及外交壓力下,只能一拖再拖。

叢林博弈理論當中,一如地殼的板塊移動,一塊動,整體也動。1962年中印戰爭後,中國和巴基斯坦於1963年亦成功達成邊界勘定。因為這戰下來,巴基斯坦終於清楚印度根本不是中國的對手。中國有足夠實力制衡印度。敵人的敵人是朋友,中巴關系開始加深,兩國迅速劃定邊界,而且逐漸發展成為鐵桿的盟友關係。

尼泊爾情況更慘。印度一直想吞併尼泊爾。2015年印度以全方位禁運的方式,陸、空域封鎖尼泊爾。近期更直接把公路修到尼泊爾境內。尼泊爾被印度在政治、經濟、移民上滲透得太厲害。如果中國不積極支持尼泊爾,尼泊爾不難步錫金和不丹的後塵被印度蠶食吞拼。而中國最具體支援的辦法,就是對印度采取強硬態度,為尼泊爾分散戰略壓力,同時讓尼泊爾境內的反印勢力知道,印度並非不可對抗。

由於印度採取西方投票式的民主制度,國內不少產業又受歐美資本直接間接控制,加上受英國統治兩百多年,西方國家會認為印度是他們在亞洲更好掌控的代理人。因此即使印度吞並錫金,控制不丹,威脅孟加拉、斯里蘭卡等,甚至其總理穆迪屢次做出縱容種族屠殺、打擊異教徒等反人類行為,西方上至政府政黨,下至媒體也只是視而不見。

因此南亞多國其實也希望中國能制衡一下印度的擴張野心。中國能夠對印度挑釁作出幹凈利落的反擊,他們才有可能相信中國會在印度損害其利益時,施以援手。這樣一來,一則既有助中國打開南亞的合作格局,二來印度將面對這些飽受欺淩的小國的據理反抗,印度多點開花,又不能真的四處開打,反而能理性回到外交桌談判,維持南亞的和平穩定。如此,美國再要煽動印度挑戰中國,便一如1962年中國大捷後,是另一個60年不為所動了。

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