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以戰止戰的中印邊境博弈 (一)

中印在邊境西線加勒萬河谷發生了衝突。事件的觸發點是印方沿中印邊境流向的什約克河(DSDBO)修建戰略公路,改變中印邊界的現狀,並企圖繼續向中國境內的加勒萬河谷修建。中國要求停止該工程無果,因而發生對峙,之後更升級為雙方人員以冷兵器對戰,導致目前印方數十名人員出現傷亡。

這場衝突其實又是另一次叢林博弈之下的事件。在中美鬥爭升級的情況之下,印度本身也想藉勢擴展印方在中印邊界的實際操控區域。而美國也想在亞洲有一個代理人,一個推手,一起圍堵中國,分散中國的精力,並為中國帶來南端的戰略壓力。因此2016年美國在南海以菲律賓為推手搞事失敗之後,其重返亞太的戰略,便變成了拉攏印度入局的「印太戰略」。

印度人一直自以為是美俄以外世界第三極的大勢力。因此對中國一直保持天然的敵意。 2017年中印軍隊洞朗對峙事件,便是在以上的背景及博弈心態之下所造出的失敗動作。這次在中印邊境(洞朗)主動挑釁中國,所收穫的成果,是中國的西部戰區名正言順將軍事人員、資源及駐紮營地大幅向前推進至離邊界極近之地。印度面臨的軍事壓力反而更大。也可以說,印方因此也老實了三年。

2020年,中美的貿易戰、科技戰的不斷升級,乃至新冠疫情的突然爆發,讓印度以為又窺到了機會。加上特朗普政府的煽動,讓印度膽子越來越大。 2月中旬,印度海關以載有能製造導彈的裝置為理由,於印度西部的坎德拉港扣押了一艘中國香港的貨輪。而在該扣押事件發生不久,特朗普便突然對印度進行首次訪問。這造成某種外交潛台詞,一是印度信任美國的情報,因而不惜挑釁中國; 同時美國堅定站在印度一邊,特朗普更明言,會「提供最好最令人生畏的武器」。如此一來,中印脆弱的信任變得更脆弱,而印度也變得騎虎難下。

同時,美國也不斷鼓動印度誤判形勢。包括發表劣質而低智的研究報告,認為中國西部戰區的兵力遜於印度、印度的軍備在美國的支持下優於中國、中國面對台海及太平洋的壓力下不敢開展南邊與印度的戰線等等。居然也能讓印度軍力相信。當然,印度本身在新冠疫情的衝擊及世界經濟轉趨惡化下,經濟大幅下滑,也面對內外不同壓力。其實也有有誘因將矛盾轉到與外界的衝突當中。

加勒萬河谷軍事衝突因此在意料之中發生。

網上不少人認為中國在面對疫情、環球經濟下滑及美國施加的多方壓力下,既然印度目前不是中國的核心對外方向,是否應該在解決以上那些更重要的事情之前,韜光養晦,可忍則忍。

在叢林博弈觀點下,尤其在美國不斷唆使中國週邊的大小勢力挑釁中國的現實中,不能存在姑息印度小塊蠶食的想法。

當局勢發展到一定的程度,尤其多方壓力疊加的時候,很多表面上不利的因素,反而可能成為活棋,變得有利。很多平常不應該做的事,反而應該去做。才能防止後面與對方出現更大的衝突、損失、戰略誤判。

印度是一個奇葩的國家。 1962年與2020年的情況有點相似: 印度同樣以爲自己是繼美俄後綜合實力最強的國家;印度當時的領導人尼赫魯與現在的莫迪同樣比較強勢及擁有迷之自信;中國同樣處於幾個方向的國際及國內壓力當中。當年中國一戰長驅直入首都新德里,打得以印度為首聯合多國的軍隊毫無抵抗力。換來了60年的和平相處。

過去60年的歷史證明,印度並非與鄰為善的國家,看其吞併錫金,壓制不丹、尼泊爾、孟加拉、斯里蘭卡等小國,長期軍事打擊巴基斯坦等行為,便能明白,只要中印邊界問題不解決,印度便不會停止小動作。但完全按照印度的提案劃分中印邊界,則中國在戰略規劃、民族情緒、經濟利益等考慮,也不可能答應。

因此,簡單來說,中國必須提早遏制印度的野心。若果需要動用軍事武力展示能力的話,南方亦是一個比台海更好的方向。這既能阻嚇美國的鷹派/軍事衝動派及中國週邊企圖抽水的小國,同時印度挑釁犯境在先,也能令中國站穩國際的道德及輿論高地上,減輕美國拉攏西方國家聯合抵制的壓力。

能戰,才能止戰。

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