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中美貿易战新一頁

中美貿易戰開打后,有人認為中国一直只能消极抵抗,並没有主动還击美国,連「不可靠清单」説出來后也没了动静,個人認為,這其實是更优的戰略選擇。

俄羅斯一旦受進迫,必定立即還擊,這个看起來很「硬漢」,鬥爭局面卻只越陷越深。中国則淡定得多,战略定力拿捏之準,不斷讓初期看来的被動局面(東海釣魚島、南海糾紛、与印度對峙等)轉為對大局有利。

這次貿易戰道理相同。特朗普与共和黨只是美国的一部份人。但有更多介乎對手與潛在夥伴的對像需要區分對待。例如美国制裁华为,我們要制裁苹果嗎?盲目制裁对中国没有好处,因为国际信誉建立不易、这种报復性的制裁,在法律、道德上站不住脚,会对外来投资有影响,成为另一个流氓美国。至于提关税,即使美国大规模提高关税,这半年的贸易数据表明,中国对美出口量反而提高了。关再打击的是美国自己;加上国家的报复性关税回应精准而理智,有明确的针对行业(美国农业),却不会对对国内有大的影响。

而「不可靠清单」,引而不发,懸而未斩,效果反而更好。企业天性是趋利避害,没有实在或潛在损失时可以响应你美国政府。但一触及这条线,会有更资本主义的行动。美国的供貨商很懂事,禁令刚宣布,便有默契的加班加点为华为发货,同时主动游说白宫;微软和谷歌也默认华为可继续使用其系统;联邦快递则最惨,不能说出政治原因,又不想成为清单第一名企业,只有美国政府给告了,以证清白。至于日韩企业等塘边鶴,一边劝诱,一手清单,足够威慑它们不敢無理站边美国。

美国四面出击,把过去多年积储的国际信用及威信虛耗。中国保持淡定,节约“火力”,及反击的弹药及手段,既占据道德制高点,又能打持久战,更不断统战持观望态度的国家枪口对美。国家之事非台上单兵打斗,意气用事只足匹夫之勇,要用谋,更要持久,不乱打,只为争取全局胜利。

在〈中美貿易战新一頁〉中有 205 則留言

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