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中國如何收買歐美人質,對沖美國的博弈風險?

後疫情時代的世界和原來幾十年累積下來的全球開放型經濟已變得不一樣。全球本已行之有序的供應鏈分工和利益分配,在美歐本身的經濟顯著轉差下,各國的經濟蛋糕能收回給本土企業的已開始收回,貿易協議已不具有過去的道義及法律束縛 。華為、Tik Tok、微信、在美上市的中企等等,現在所面對的攻擊及打壓,完全違反世貿組織(WTO)有關公平自由貿易的協定,但WTO又能如何?又表達過什麽立場了?

面對這些不公待遇,中國可以有兩種應對方式:

一、把國內沒有什麼技術含量,利潤率及可替代性偏高的外資企業以各種手段從中國排擠出去,讓資源流回內需企業及經濟內循環。

二、一旦把以上外資企業(尤其製造業)擠出中國,且不論其高端或低端,他們將轉移到其他國家,以繼續生產廉價工業及消費產品供應給歐美各國。到時這些國家不愁日用品來源,就可以更放心圍剿中國了。而接受這些產業轉移的國家,也會因為利益原因進一步倒向美國。如此,利益捆綁解套了,反華就更沒有顧忌。

因此,中國目前應該充分利用中國的產業優勢,如高素質的人力,穩定的社會環境,防疫復工的可靠性,高度發達的基礎設施等,把歐美現有的企業留在中國,同時吸引其他受疫情影響的跨國企業進駐中國,這便相當於讓這些企業自願進入中國做人質、做歐美説客。

一方面,當資本集團及其利益與中國持續捆綁,美國之後雖然仍會歇斯底里反華,但總算還有顧忌,各種制裁措施會在這些利益團體基於自身利益的「發功」下,變得雷聲大雨點小。另一方面,當中國仍是其他觀望派的中立國家最大的交易夥伴,也是由於與他們自身利益有關,他們也不會完全倒向美國,圍堵中國。這是另一道保險栓,亦是盡最大可能發揮己之所長的博弈之道。

另外,國內在把握美國自揭遮醜面具的這些惡性事件的同時,要加快在事關意識形態領域方面的撥亂反正,統一國人思想,團結大多數人,破解歐美過去多年深植人心的各種民主、公平、法治、自由貿易等神話及光環。攘外必先安內,絕不能讓內部各種跪美及夾帶私貨的混亂思想,在中美博弈的關鍵時候拖國家後腿,幹擾政策施行,令國家不同力量、民心民意被分化瓦解,各個擊破。

中美是超級大國,超級大國的崩塌只會從內部開始。中國要做好防控美國突發危機或黑天鵝式戰略冒險的準備,做好自己該做的事,保持戰略定力,靜觀一切不確定事件的出現。不急不躁,該反擊時反擊,尤其對五眼或牆頭草國家,更要將他們的投機冒險心消減於萌芽狀態!

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