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美国各界暗盼疫情持续的丛林博弈观

美国社会运动持续燃烧,确诊数字亦再次升高。一般人以为美国将出现社会恐慌及股市急挫,但以丛林博弈的角度分析,事实与想象似乎会出乎大部分人的意料。

在无限量化宽松及特朗普为箍选票而不理长远后果的派钱政策下,可以说,美国由精英阶层至平民百姓,其实没有多少人希望疫情早日结束。

为什么这样说?

美国公布5月份的失业率,从14.7%稍跌至13.3%。但因种族歧视问题而爆发的社会运动Black Lives Matter下,多市出现紧急状态,复工复市的势头又被打断,因此未来的失业人口预期将保持在4,000万以上。

低收入群体疫情期间收入不跌反升

美国疫情期间的失业者,能领取失业保险及联邦政府的救济金补贴。失业保险是按周领取的,会根据失业者在失业前最后一个季度的薪酬来确定失业保险的额度。例如,该失业者失业前最后一季的收入为10,000美元,那平均一周能领到约400美元,一个月可以领到约1600美元,至少可持续6个月,直到拿完这10,000元。

而疫情期间,失业保险的最高额度提高到每人每周600美元(比疫情前提高了近50%),每个月的失业保险金收入最高可达到约2,500美元。最长可连续领取4个月。

同一时间,联邦政府在疫情期间的补贴为每位成人1,200美元,儿童则可以获得500美元。以一个4口家庭来计算,疫情期间即使不上班,每月仍可获得最高3,200美元的失业保险金 +3,400美元的疫情补贴,而且是税后收入。换回港元,约51,500港元。这其实已可媲美税前月收入7,000-8,000美元的美国一般中产家庭。要知道,年薪10万美元已是美国top 10%的高薪族了。加上疫情期间不用上班,支出减少,不用交税,这份收入几可肯定能存留一大部份,疫情是把大部份中低收入人士推向高薪阶层啊!

因此对美国中下阶层的失业者来说,疫情持续,乃至蔓延一两年的话,只要不受感染,他们的生活质素其实是有所改善的!

中上阶层的工作生活新形态

疫情期间大部份中上受薪阶层,尤其专业技术人员,虽不能正常上班,但收入未必受太大影响,因为在线办公在实际需求下短时间内常态化了。连50后、60后的中高级管理层也无缝接受了这新业态。而部份互联网公司更超前实施了长期居家办公的政策。

居家办公,工作量减,时间松裕,又有闲钱在手,投资股市乃成为当然选择。而见证着美国股市在新一轮无限量化宽松下的步步高升,财富随着水涨船高,而生活上又难得有这个空间能调整一下步伐,反思一下人生,在这些难得的机会下,中上阶层自然也没有强大诱因希望疫情结束。

选举年两大政党也需要疫情持续

在选举年,对共和党及特朗普来说,唯一重视的便是连任。一般人以为疫情会有碍其连任,但实际情况是,疫情越严重越利好共和党及特朗普。美国传统上,在选举年若出现重大危机,现任总统连任的机会一般更大。因为选民会更加支持在任总统作出危机处理及实行各项相关政策。这个特殊时段内的在任总统,其行政资源及动员能力可谓最高效及集中!

因此若疫情持续甚至蔓延,而同时选情未见起色的话,特朗普甚至可宣布国家进入紧急状态,或对内平乱,或对外开战,那连任的把握便更大了。军事战争故然是战争,贸易战亦是战争。疫情之下美国经济更显衰退,共和党背后的经济复合体有理由趁势打压中国,提高关税,继续推行逆全球化政策,以维护共和党背后金主的长期经济利益。

因此疫情存在不确定性,对共和党的选战来说,是一张更好的牌。

至于民主党,疫情对他们来说,则是攻击施政出现严重问题的共和党及特朗普的利器。过去百年来,美国的选举文化中,总统连任的机率极大。特朗普虽然倒行逆施,但亦不乏支持者,因此疫情前期支持率仍远高于民主党候选人拜登。要打破这局面,疫情及BLM的社会运动对民主党来说是一个正面的变数。而亦只有疫情在特朗普的任期下持续恶化,他们才能在选举中攻击特朗普的执政能力,以及不论选举成败仍能调整美国现时病态的内政及外交决策。

这亦是民主党希望疫情蔓延的诱因。

而美国两党背后的金主 — 华尔街的资本集团来说,疫情亦是延续他们赚取超额利润的重要环境。美联储因为疫情而180度改变货币政策。原先拟采取紧缩货币政策,疫情下迫于重新量化宽松,而且是无限量的量化宽松。实时给市场提供十数万亿美元计的流动性,首阶段买企业手上的政府债及企业债,近日更进一步购买私人手上的债。不同派系的资本集团,享受着疫情带来的流动性及高额回报的机会,谁又愿意这派对结束?

上至资本集团、两大政党、各界精英,下至中下阶层的劳工阶层及失业人士,都在享受疫情直接带来的好处,谁又会特别在乎染新冠肺炎死去的十多万人?而且每年因流感死去几十万人已是常态,而因交通意外及各类疾病失去性命的人数在隔离政策下跌幅明显。新冠肺炎的杀伤力并不如以上各团体已到手的利益。

这就是丛林博弈之下美国人对疫情的态度。这很美国,中国人的思维并不容易看得明白。

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