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畅想人民币数字货币

近年来,科技的发展给很多业务模式带来了新的机遇和挑战。支付系统的现代化和数字货币,也是投资者非常关注的一个领域。过去由于通信设施和计算能力的限制,所以获取的信息有限,处理的内容也不能太多。如今通信、信息获取以及数据处理的能力大幅提升后,可以调整工作量的分布,使交易的时刻做更多事情,有望使支付更加便利化,尤其是跨境支付。

在12月13日举办的“2020上海金融论坛”上,中国金融学会会长、中国人民银行原行长周小川就“IT发展促进智慧体系现代化和跨境支付的便利化”发表了主题演讲。其指出,如果利用交易瞬间所具有的信息获取和处理能力,可以在支付系统现代化和跨境支付便利化方面做很多工作,而且可以向前承接,既与现有体制有比较好的衔接性,向后也有相当好的适应性,体现了以账户为基础,双层银行体系服务的长处和好处。

在技术层面来看,数字人民币具有降低交易成本、提高征信效率、强化支付便利的功效。基于此,人民银行能够进一步推动金融科技有序发展、加速金融行业数字化转型。相关人士认为,一方面,这将优化金融市场信息匹配、风险定价的能力,从而纾解中小微企业、低收入群体等弱势主体的融资瓶颈。另一方面,基于数字人民币支付结算的金融服务具有更广泛的可得性,助力欠发达地区、“长尾人群”更便利地接入国内资金融通的“内循环”。

从法律角度考察,主权货币虽然是伴随国家现象的一个历史现象,但相对于法定货币而言,网络货币更有条件回归交易契约的本质。例如比特币是交易双方认可、然后契约化的一个支付货币,可能它更符合市场的属性,也就更利于市场资源的配置效率和运行效率。

如今面对历史潮流,如果选择全方位对接由美国市场主导的数字货币体系,例如Libra2.0、数字美元1.0等,则将进一步强化对美元流动性的依赖。反之,如果数字人民币能够抢抓这一历史机遇,与全球价值链相结合,则会在新赛道上推动人民币网际化进程和“网络效应”,这将在数字货币时代提前构建金融“护城”,减弱美元流动性的大起大落对中国货币政策的外溢冲击。

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