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特朗普惹众怒,美国将迎来大规模反噬

9月16日,美国联储局公布议息结果,利率会维持零水准,直至2023年底前将不会加息,但未有提到新一轮救市方案。这反映联储局救市已近技穷矣。一年内以十多万亿元的规模救市,虽然股市是屡创新高,却未能使实体经济复苏并带来新的支持,救市力度恐怕已见顶。

美国政府正在做的一切,包括所有救市计划,都在使实体经济变弱而非增强。若不停止这类固醇式对上市公司及金融机构的支出,相关资源便难以释放回到更迫切需要这些资源的实体经济及民营部门。而且,联储局的无限量增发,也正在透支美国的信用,这将会使美元逐步遭到抛弃、摧毁。

另一方面,特朗普「美国优先」的国际贸易逻辑,也在透支美国的全球信用。对华为全面停供的禁令生效后第四天,AMD和Intel便先后宣布得到对华为的供货许可。窥斑见豹,美国禁止全球晶片厂商与华为合作,目的很可能只是逼迫其他国家与中国脱钩,美国企业有许可证在手,反而更能与中国挂钩。中国晶片相关的上中下游企业,在没有其他国家的供应商选择下,短期内唯有选择与美国企业合作。

可惜,没有企业与国家是绝对傻的。美国既要求全球晶片行业跟中国来往都需要其发许可证,但许可证却只会优先发证给美国企业,最终形成的局面只会是:非美国企业都不能向华为供货,只有美国企业有这特权。那其他国家的晶片企业,为求生存,只有彻底去美国(技术)化!德国的晶片巨头英飞凌便是其中一个例子。

而美国的高通是聪明清醒的,它曾向美国政府发出警告。因为这种暴政式的晶片禁令,只会削弱海外客户对美国企业的信心,使海外客户寻求多管道多层次的非美国供应商。而一旦中国市场完成与非美国技术衔接,全球晶片产业链将加速与美国脱钩。而这种脱钩将会是不可逆的。晶片行业前车可鉴,其他国家不同行业的巨头肯定会着手技术去美国化、市场对接中国化!

全球宏观经济因新冠疫情而元气大伤,美国金融市场见顶欲坠、美元信用削弱、美国科技行业又迫使其他国家技术去美国化,加上美国历史上多次总统选举后将会出现经济回调的问题,因此未来一季出现的调整,实在不容轻视。而由美股下挫带来全球其他股市暴挫的骨牌效应在今年三四月时已有震撼展示。

保留现金在手,这一波跌市中会有优质的产业及金融资产收购的。

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