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比特币开年火爆,迎来新年开门红

周六(1月2日),下午,比特币的价格有史以来首次突破3.3万美元,数小时前,比特币的价格刚刚突破3万美元,这说明继创纪录的2020年之后,今年的开局非常火爆。

3万美元的比特币什么概念?这么说,12月16日比特币首次站上2万美元后,如果当天买进,仅仅半个多月收益回报就高达50%。截至2020年12月28日,比特币价格从2019年年底的7,200美元上升至27,084美元,涨幅接近3倍,并且成为年初以来涨幅最高的资产类别,甚至超过了FAAMNG科技巨头指数。除了全球流动性宽松带来的影响以外,分析认为,过去一年以PayPal、Robinhood、Grayscale为代表的金融机构在拓宽数字资产管道上的金融创新,是币价过去一年上涨接近3倍背后的结构性原因。短期币价可能受流动性以及投机资金进出推动,出现较大波动,但是长期来看,传统投资人基础的不断扩大,利好比特币等数字资产价格的稳定上升。

那么,和三年前比特币崩盘不同,即时币圈的圈内人毫不讳言比特币的暴涨已是一场大泡沫,但在全球天量流动性的驱动下,比特币成了“刚性泡沫”。在新冠肺炎大流行期间,由于美联储将利率下调至接近零的水准(并且料将在未来几年保持在这一水准),投资者将大量资金投入比特币和其他加密货币,以谋求更高的回报。与此同时,欧美央行推出极度宽松的货币政策推高了金融市场的通胀预期,而比特币被视为对冲通胀的最佳工具之一,这也是投资者纷纷涌入比特币的原因之一。高盛此前指出,比特币是对冲通胀的工具,可以与黄金共存。

然而对比实物货币的四个特征发现,比特币在普遍接受性和价值稳定两方面尚不能媲美黄金等实物货币,但可以满足价值均匀可分性,在轻便和易携带性上具备实物货币难以比拟的优势。比特币替代信用货币的最大障碍正是去中心化的特性,没有信用基础的比特币不能很好地行使货币的职能。借鉴比特币相关技术,研发央行数位货币的首要出发点是补充与替代传统实物货币。

如果说上一波行情的暴涨是由于大量散户抱着赌一把的心态冲进了市场,推动了币价,那么这次的行情很大程度上得益于机构的入局。一般而言,当风险可控时,机构才会加入,而机构的加入提供了充裕的资金,也提高了未来的收益预期。比特币开门红是否能继续突破历史,市场将全方位拭目以待。

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