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从比特币暴跌解读2021年区块链

进入1月,比特币从3万美元涨至4万美元,用了不到一周的时间。比特币再陷暴跌,于1月21日大跌超10%,截至23日报32,619美元。

在比特币暴涨暴跌背后,是全球金融市场对于通胀预期的分歧,以及涨速过快后投机者的获利了结。那么在比特币这个“巨型泡沫”背后,究竟其底层的区块链技术在2021年是否有更多的发展前景?

对于比特币近期的暴跌,市场一直有观点认为,应该清醒地看到比特币是一种高风险资产,而不是避险资产。而且比特币作为一种特殊的资产类别,不同于股票或债券,不会产生任何可预期的现金流,投资者获取回报的唯一方式是比特币价格的上涨,因此更容易形成投机性泡沫。

早前,各界认为,区块链将被用来构建新一代金融基础设施,包括清算和支付。相比中心化的信用保证机制,使用区块链可以降低成本。区块链的技术特点,例如链上数据难以篡改、不可撤销,在供应链、物流、溯源等行业都可以发挥重要作用。但事实上,业内人士如今的共识也在于,尽管传统金融存在低效的一面,但低效往往为的是合规、风控。此外,例如央行已经作为一个有效的中心化的调控机制,真要转为分布式、去中心化是缺乏意义的。

如果金融行业一定要用人工智能、区块链,要加前提,即在什么样场景和金融痛点的情况下需要用区块链,什么样情况下需要用中央管控的数据结构。不可能全是分布式的,同样也不可能全是集中式的,关键要根据监管结构、监管的内容和监管的目标来决定。

不难发现,区块链应用存在现实挑战,找到合适的场景至关重要。在当前的金融科技范式中,无论是传统的互联网平台亦或是区块链平台大都是以数据孤岛的形式存在的——用户和开发人员或多或少会受到平台功能或其他的限制。互操作性是区块链行业的未来,事务一致性是跨链,或者更广义的互操作性的大目标,这是整个区块链生态与传统互联网世界实现协同,大规模构建未来数字经济和‘下一代互联网’的一个基础。

尽管目前已经有了很多互操作性协议,但大部分都集中在“资产转移”这部分, 这其实是跨链世界中极小的一块拼图。除了各个区块链之间的互通,区块链和传统平台之间的互通也是我们尚需克服的一大难题。

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