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中美贸易战新一页

中美贸易战开打后,有人认为中国一直只能消极抵抗,并没有主动还击美国,连「不可靠清单」说出来后也没了动静,个人认为,这其实是更优的战略选择。

俄罗斯一旦受进迫,必定立即还击,这个看起来很「硬汉」,斗争局面却只越陷越深。中国则淡定得多,战略定力拿捏之准,不断让初期看来的被动局面(东海钓鱼岛、南海纠纷、与印度对峙等)转为对大局有利。

这次贸易战道理相同。特朗普与共和党只是美国的一部份人。但有更多介乎对手与潜在伙伴的对像需要区分对待。例如美国制裁华为,我们要制裁苹果吗?盲目制裁对中国没有好处,因为国际信誉建立不易、这种报复性的制裁,在法律、道德上站不住脚,会对外来投资有影响,成为另一个流氓美国。至于提关税,即使美国大规模提高关税,这半年的贸易数据表明,中国对美出口量反而提高了。关再打击的是美国自己;加上国家的报复性关税回应精准而理智,有明确的针对行业(美国农业),却不会对对国内有大的影响。

而「不可靠清单」,引而不发,悬而未斩,效果反而更好。企业天性是趋利避害,没有实在或潜在损失时可以响应你美国政府。但一触及这条线,会有更资本主义的行动。美国的供货商很懂事,禁令刚宣布,便有默契的加班加点为华为发货,同时主动游说白宫;微软和谷歌也默认华为可继续使用其系统;联邦快递则最惨,不能说出政治原因,又不想成为清单第一名企业,只有美国政府给告了,以证清白。至于日韩企业等塘边鹤,一边劝诱,一手清单,足够威慑它们不敢无理站边美国。

美国四面出击,把过去多年积储的国际信用及威信虚耗。中国保持淡定,节约“火力”,及反击的弹药及手段,既占据道德制高点,又能打持久战,更不断统战持观望态度的国家枪口对美。国家之事非台上单兵打斗,意气用事只足匹夫之勇,要用谋,更要持久,不乱打,只为争取全局胜利。

在〈中美贸易战新一页〉中有 109 則留言

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